NZ’s rental market 2024: current predictions, core drivers, and trends to watch

NZ's rental market: latest predictions, enduring advice, and helpful data sources

Looking for expert insights into the rental market?

As one of New Zealand’s largest property managers, we keep a close watch on market trends and provide expert guidance to landlords and tenants.

Find answers to the most common questions about rental market shifts, investment considerations, and regulatory changes - plus where to access the latest rental market data.

Read the latest rental market predictions from our leadership team

Table of Contents

• Latest rental market predictions
• How rents will change in 2025
• What to expect from the Residential Tenancies Act
• Property management industry regulation
• Long-term rental market trends
• Where to find rental market data

Latest rental market predictions

The rental market in New Zealand continues to evolve, influenced by factors such as government policies, economic conditions, and supply and demand.

Here’s what we expect in 2025:

• Fixed-term tenancies will rise: With new rules allowing landlords to end fixed-term tenancies without providing a reason, more landlords may prefer this type of lease.
• Rental prices will stabilise: After years of rapid increases, rental inflation is expected to slow in many regions as supply catches up with demand.
• Tenant retention will be key: Landlords may focus on keeping quality tenants rather than seeking higher rents in a competitive market.
• Technology adoption in property management: More landlords and property managers will use proptech for inspections, communication, and automation.
• A shift in investor behaviour: Some smaller landlords may exit the market due to rising costs, while larger investors focus on build-to-rent properties.
• Pet-friendly rentals will increase: Regulatory changes may make it easier for tenants to have pets, increasing demand for pet-friendly properties.
• Tenant advocacy will strengthen: As tenants become more aware of their rights, compliance will be crucial for landlords and property managers.

How rents will change in 2025

A return to steady growth

Over the past four years, rental prices have surged, particularly in regional New Zealand. While double-digit increases have been common, we anticipate a return to more typical rent growth of 4–5% annually.

Factors influencing rent trends:

• Immigration pressures: A net migration gain of nearly 130,000 people is increasing rental demand.

• Affordability limits: Rent increases will be constrained by tenants' ability to pay.

• Supply improvements: More available rental stock may ease pressure on rental prices.

Want to know how your region compares? Use the Tenancy Services Market Rent Data to benchmark your rental price.

Sourced from Tenancy Services Rent and Bond Data. Median rent for New Zealand from 1993 to 2023 with a 5-year trendline.

What to expect from the Residential Tenancies Act

The National-led coalition government has signalled changes to the Residential Tenancies Act (RTA), including:

• Reinstating 90-day notice periods: The previous government removed a landlord’s ability to end a tenancy with 90-days’ notice without reason. Expect a heated debate if this change is reversed.

• More pet-friendly rentals: The ACT Party has pushed for tenants to have a right to pets, with landlords able to charge an additional pet bond. However, the Tenancy Tribunal has already ruled that landlords cannot prohibit pets, making this change less impactful than it seems.

Property management industry regulation

The previous government introduced a bill to regulate property managers, similar to real estate agents. While the ACT Party is anti-regulation, National supported the bill’s first reading.

What to expect:

• The Residential Property Managers Bill is under review, with a final report due by February 2024.

• Regulation will likely require property managers to be licensed, increasing professional standards.

• Smaller property management businesses may exit the industry due to compliance costs.

Property investors should stay updated on these potential changes, as they may impact how rental properties are managed.

Long-term rental market trends

What drives rental prices?

• Interest rates & inflation: High mortgage rates increase landlord costs, often leading to rent rises.

• Housing supply & demand: More properties reduce rental price pressure, while immigration increases demand.

• Affordability: Rent increases are ultimately limited by tenants’ ability to pay.

Best practices for landlords

• Setting rent competitively: Use market rent data to price your property effectively.

• Keeping quality tenants: A good tenant is worth more than short-term rental increases.

• Understanding regulations: Stay informed about Residential Tenancies Act changes.

Where to find rental market data

Want to keep an eye on NZ’s rental market?

Here are the best sources:

* Stats NZ – Housing Statistics

* Reserve Bank of NZ – Economic Research

* Tenancy Services – Market Rent Data

* Infometrics – Housing Market Reports

Tracking this data can help landlords make informed investment decisions.

Talk to a property management expert

Navigating the rental market can be complex. Our experts provide up-to-date advice to landlords across New Zealand.

* Find your local property manager

* Download our Property Management eBook

* Use our rental yield calculator